Abstract
The article is a political understanding of the results of the first stage of the special military operation (SMO) in Ukraine, which began on 24 February 2022. First of all, the author focuses on the problem of analytical support of the SMO, stating that in this regard the Russian side faced serious mistakes and mistakes of both civilian and military experts, mostly misjudged opponent’s social potential, and the deal within the Ukrainian elite. The author considers the political, economic, social, value and ideological transformations that have occurred in the last 8 years in Ukraine and have seriously undermined the positions of pro-Russian forces there. At the same time, the weakness of the Russian policy of “soft power” in 2014–2022 is noted, as well as the negative consequences of the Minsk agreements.
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