İnşaat Maliyet Endeksi Tahmininde Holt-Winters Üstel Düzeltme Parametrelerinin PSO ve İleri Walk-Forward Cross-Validation ile Optimizasyonu

Abstract

This research aims to enhance the accuracy of Construction Cost Index (CCI) forecasting using Holt-Winters exponential smoothing (ES) by optimizing its parameters, focusing on minimizing the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for precise CCI forecasts. To reach this aim, The Holt-Winters model parameters are optimized through Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Walk-Forward Cross-Validation (WFCV). PSO, a metaheuristic optimization algorithm, is being applied to search for optimal values of the smoothing parameters (alpha, beta, and gamma) that determine the weightage of past observations, trends, and seasonality, respectively. WFCV is assessed the model's performance and ensures robustness. Reduced MAPEs of 22 for CCI forecasts and 2 for training data are the findings of the optimized Holt-Winters model. The obtained alpha, beta, and gamma values are 0.99, 0.77, and 0, respectively, highlighting the importance of while neglecting seasonality. Convergence graphs demonstrate the superiority of the optimization approach over conventional parameter values or random selections. By employing PSO and WFCV, the study efficiently fine-tunes the Holt-Winters model for precise CCI forecasting. Optimized parameter values enable data driven decision-making in construction project cost estimation and budget management. This research contributes a reliable and robust optimization methodology for CCI forecasting, supporting advancements in the field.