Na orbitální frontě stále klid? Pomalá proliferace proti-satelitních zbraní

Abstract

The article strives to explore the issue of relatively slow proliferation of anti-satellite weapons (ASATs). Until now only three countries developed the ASATs. The issue is examined through the analytically separate factors that might motivate or dissuade the ASAT proliferation. The main strategic roles that ASATs may play in a state's security policy are defined, and their relevance vis-à-vis proliferation is assessed. The roles include: a defensive measure against adversary's space-based nuclear weapons, a force multiplier for a nuclear first strike, a countermeasure against adversary's anti-ballistic missile defense (ABM), an asymmetric counter to a technologically superior adversary, and a counter-value weapon. Other explored factors carrying a potential relevance for the ASAT proliferation include legal constrains, environmental and technical aspects.