N.D. Kondratiev Long Wave Models for Three Large European Countries

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the similarities and differences in the structure of N. D. Kondratiev long waves in the economies of the three largest European countries: Germany, France and Great Britain. It is assumed that the main trend in the dynamics of the GDP of these countries – ​is the trend associated precisely with changes in technology, and not with the influence of ones or others exogenous factors – ​can be represented in the form of a superposition of long Kondratiev waves represented by a periodic function, the values of which at a given time determines the amount of value added produced over the previous time interval. Each wave is characterized by four parameters: time, length of its period, magnitude of the initial amplitude and rate of amplitude decrease. In addition, such characteristics of long waves as the duration of their latency period, the time of their entry into leading positions and duration of their leadership relative to the previous and subsequent technological waves are calculated. Five long Kondratiev waves are considered, the parameters of which are estimated in such a way as to obtain the best description of the dynamics of the GDP of a given country in terms of the deviation of the model from this dynamics. As an estimate of GDP, its values measured in international dollars (Geary–Khamis dollars) for the period from 1790 to 2020 are considered. The calculations showed that in some parameters there is a similarity in the structure of technological waves in these countries, while in others there are differences in the dynamics of their occurrence and development. In the final part of the article, the characteristics of long waves for three European countries are compared with the characteristics of long waves in the US economy over the same time period obtained in previous studies. It is also shown that the leadership durations of long waves obtained in these calculations coincide with the theoretical estimates of the periods of long waves by N. D. Kondratiev.