基于生态系统服务理论的中国绿色经济转型预测分析

Abstract

In order to predict and analyze the way of China' s green transition,the calculation model on green economic indicators was put forward based on the theory of ecosystem services,the traditional input-output analysis method,the traditional environmental load model,decoupling theory and location quotient theory. These economic indicators can clearly show the dynamic relationship between resource consumption and environmental loss costs and ecosystem. By using simulation method the service values of all kinds of land ecosystems were firstly calculated in 2010 on the basis of the equivalent weights of land ecosystem service values in China. Moreover, the model on resource consumption and environmental loss costs was established based on service values of ecosystem. And these formulas for calculating green GDP,ecological load intensity,resource decoupling indicator and location quotient on green GDP were respectively presented. Using the above models and formulas the global and China's index values of green economy were calculated from2001 to 2010. With high development of the national economy in recent years, China' s resource consumption and environmental loss costs are increasing day by day. Many disputes and friction on the rights and responsibilities with the developed countries are also produced. On the basis of China' s future planning objectives on economic and social development as well as the relevant national statistical data,economic development indicators were calculated using theabove-mentioned models and the global future indicators were predicted using a unitary linear regression model. The predicted results showed that total cost of resource consumption and environmental loss would reach $ 3.11 × 1012 and net worth of green GDP per person reached $ 0. 37 × 104,the ecological load intensity,resource decoupling indicator and location quotient on green GDP were respectively 0.38,0.66 and 75 by 2015. The results in this study showed that China's ecological pressure would be gradually reduced,and the efficiency of resource utilization and location quotient on green GDP would be simultaneously improved with the economic benefit enhancing. The location quotient on green GDP will exceed the global average in 2020,the GDP per person will surpass ten thousand dollars and join the range of moderately developed countries in 2024. In future, China will still adhere to the principle of " common but differentiated responsibilities",and solve the disputes on the rights and responsibilities with other countries. Meanwhile,China will actively promote energy conservation,industrial restructuring,and further coordinate the regional relationship among economic development,natural resources and ecological environment.