イラクの石油関連状況と対イラク投資戦略について

Abstract

If general political situation in Iraq is improved explicitly, there will be good possibility its oil production will be over 6 million B/D in 5 years time. But to materialize this, economically rational political decision by the future legitimate Iraqi government for huge scale introduction of IOC must overcome naive nationalism and vested interests of NOC technocrats that can be seen very often in other major oil producing countries. At present, despite hope of the White House and the interim government, IOC's are very reluctant to longterm investments in Iraq because of serious political instability and strong possibility of severe contractual conditions, which are very common in the Arabian Gulf area. Based on these situations, there will be certain business chances for Japanese oil industry, but in order to make these chances really meaningful profits, Japanese companies should consider various factors and alternatives cautiously.