エアロゾルと雲の放射がアジアモンスーンに及ぼす影響とその長期予報における意義

Abstract

The influence of aerosol and cloud radiations upon the Asian summer monsoon was studied by using the global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model at the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). We parameterize both the direct and indirect effects of aerosols on radiative processes. In addition, criteria of cloud diagnosis are modified to enhance the cloud cover over the land in contrast to that over the ocean, considering that clouds form more easily over the land due to surface inhomogeneity and stay longer in the atmosphere due to smaller droplet size over the land than over the ocean. We confirm that the prediction of Asian monsoon activity is very sensitive to inclusions of aerosols and land-cloud enhancement. The control model, which uses the same cloud diagnosis scheme both over the land and over the ocean and does not include any effects of aerosols, systematically overpredicts the absorbed solar radiation (ASR) over land. The test model with these processes fairly reduces the systematic errors of land-ocean contrast of ASR. Over the Eurasian continent, the test model reduces ASR and lowers low-level temperature through land-atmosphere interactions. It suppresses monsoonal circulations in Southeast Asia and significantly delays northward migration of the typical fronts around East Asia, such as the Meiyu, Changma and Baiu fronts. The impact of land-cloud enhancement on one-month forecasts of the Asian monsoon seems to be similar to that of aerosols. Although the reduction of systematic errors of ASR indicates the relevance of the total effects of the two parameterization schemes, relative magnitudes of their impacts in nature are still uncertain. Further studies are required on distributions of aerosols and their optical properties, and cloud formation mechanisms particularly associated with the land-ocean difference, including aerosol-cloud interactions.