河川径流时间序列的趋势性及突变性分析

Abstract

河川径流时间序列呈现出一定的趋势性及突变性，通过探讨径流序列趋势性及突变性变化规律，分析潜在突变点，进而可以进一步掌握径流序列的径流演变规律。本文以桃林口水库为例，对其入库径流的趋势性及突变性进行了分析，得到了相应的径流序列演变特点。通过分析可以看出，桃林口水库各径流序列呈现出逐年递减的趋势，且径流序列均没有发生显著突变。该结果可以对后续径流预报模型的选用、水库调度及水资源配置等工作提供技术支撑及理论依据。 The river runoff time series has certain characteristics of trend and mutability, and the potential mutation point can be analyzed by discussing the variation regulation of those features, thus further grasping the runoff evolution law of runoff series. Taolinkou reservoir was selected as an example, and its trend and mutability properties of inflow runoff were analyzed, which clarifies the evolution characteristics of relative runoff series. It is shown that all kinds of runoff time series present the decrease trend year by year but no mutation obviously. The results can provide technical support and theoretical basis of sub-sequent model selecting of runoff forecasting, reservoir dispatching and water resources allocation.