基于发生指数的中国森林生物灾害趋势与突变特征

Abstract

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 基于发生指数的中国森林生物灾害趋势与突变特征 DOI: 10.5846/stxb202110132891 作者: 作者单位: 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 中国林业科学研究院基本科研业务费专项（CAFYBB2016SY014，CAFYBB2020ZD001） Trend and abrupt change analysis of forest biological disasters in China based on forest pest outbreak index Author: Affiliation: Fund Project: 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:监测分析森林生物灾害时空变化特征对了解森林生物灾害的动态演变和综合治理具有重要意义。基于1998-2019年森林有害生物灾害面积及同期森林面积增长统计数据，计算衍生了森林有害生物发生指数（FPOI）、灾害发生率（FPOAR）两个系列指标集，分别采用Sen's斜率估计（Sen+Mann-Kendall）和曼-肯德尔（Mann Kendall，M-K）突变检验、滑动T检验、变异系数和赫斯特指数（Hurst exponent）指数方法分析中国森林生物灾害的时空分异特征。研究表明：（1） FPOI、FPOAR指标用于森林生物灾害不同尺度分析具备可操作与适用性，两指标均可分析有害生物发生趋势与突变，但表现程度有所差别。（2）历史变化特征，全国尺度FPOI森林生物灾害总体表现为下降趋势，FPOAR表现为上升趋势，省区尺度，新疆、西藏、天津等局部省区森林生物灾害呈上升趋势，而华北、东北、华东、西北等大部分省区表现为下降态势。（3）突变特征，全国尺度上趋势突变仅在2001年发生，其它年度趋势未变。在省区尺度则大部分区域并未展现突变，局部省区多展现一次趋势改变，且不同省区突变时间有一致性。（4）稳定性特征，全国大部分省区显示稳定，但FPOI、FPOAR指标衡量存在差异，以FPOAR指标海南、青海、浙江、重庆、上海等5省区表现不稳定，但以FPOI指标，不稳定区域扩大到11省区，增加了除以上省区的甘肃、西藏、山西、河南、江苏、吉林6省区。（5）未来趋势特征，全国森林生物灾害与历史趋势保持一致，大部分省区呈现持续下降趋势。局部省区如新疆、西藏仍然显示持续增加态势。 Abstract:Monitoring and analyzing the spatio-temporal patterns changes is of great significance for understanding the dynamic evolution and integrated management of forest biological disasters. Based on the open statistical data of forest pest disaster area and forest cover area at national and provincial scale from 1998 to 2019, two series of indicators, the Forest Pest Outbreak Index (FPOI) and the Forest Pest Occurrence Area Rate (FPOAR), were calculated and derived. The spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics of forest biological disasters in China were revealed by the indicators data analysis with various methods. Sen's Slope Estimator and Mann Kendall test, Mann Kendall mutation test, sliding T test, coefficient of variation, and Hurst exponent were adopted separately in analyzing the trend, sudden changes and stability of occurred disasters. The results are as follows:(1) Both of FPOI and FPOAR indicators are suitable for different scales analysis of forest biological disasters. With the clearly differentiation of the consistent spatio-temporal data of the two indicators, the characteristics of forest biological disasters could be analyzed and quantitative visualized. However, there might be partially different between the results by the two indicators. (2) Regarding the characteristics of historical trend, the FPOI indicator with more weight on severe and moderate disasters showed downward trend at the national scale, while the FPOAR indicator was an upward trend. At the provincial scale, both indicators disclosed that forest biological disasters in Xinjiang, Tibet, Tianjin and a few other provinces were on the rise. However, more provinces in most regions of North, Northeast, East, and Northwest China showed a downward trend. (3) In terms of mutation characteristics, at the national scale, the trend mutation occurred only in 2001, and there was no mutation in other years. At the provincial scale, most regions did not show abrupt changes, and a few provinces showed one trend changes in the same years. (4) According to the stability characteristics of forest biological hazards, forest pest disasters showed stable in most provinces across the country. The performance of 5 provinces included Hainan, Qinghai, Zhejiang, Chongqing, Shanghai were unstable by the FPOAR indicator, the unstable provinces numbers expanded to 11 by the FPOI indicator, 6 more provinces included Gansu, Tibet, Shanxi, Henan, Jiangsu, Jilin provinces were joined. (5) For the characteristics of the future trend, forest pest disasters at the national scale and in regions at the provincial scale are consistent with historical trends, showing a continuous downward trend in most provinces. A few provinces, such as Xinjiang and Tibet, still show a continuous upward trend. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献