东莞市人工景观结构与连接度的协整性及因果关系

Abstract

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 东莞市人工景观结构与连接度的协整性及因果关系 DOI: 10.5846/stxb201311052673 作者: 作者单位: 广州大学地理科学学院,广州大学地理科学学院,广州大学地理科学学院,广州大学地理科学学院 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 国家科技支撑计划课题(2012BAH32B03);国家自然科学基金项目(41071078);教育部人文社科规划基金项目(11YJAZH016);住房和城乡建设部科学技术项目(2012-K8-42)资助 Research on the cointegration and causality between urban artificial landscape structure change and landscape connectivity in Dongguan City Author: Affiliation: School of Geographical Sciences,Guangzhou University,School of Geographical Sciences,Guangzhou University,School of Geographical Sciences,Guangzhou University,School of Geographical Sciences,Guangzhou University Fund Project: 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:城市人工景观特征逐步向城市外围自然及半自然景观渗透。近年来对快速城市化地区的景观格局特征定量化研究很多,但侧重于景观格局特征的简单分析和描述,忽略了城市空间扩展过程中,城市人工景观结构与景观连接度动态变化过程中之间的内部联系。以东莞市1988-2009年城市人工景观为研究对象,通过计算并分析景观结构与景观连接度指数,利用计量经济学中的协整概念与格兰杰因果检验方法并详细分析了这两类指数之间的具体关系。研究结果表明:(1)所选取的景观结构指数与景观连接度指数能较好地描述东莞市城市人工景观时空格局变化过程;(2)人工景观斑块类型面积(CA)与可能连通性指数(PC)存在协整关系。景观聚集度指数(AI)、蔓延度指数(CONTAG)与景观连通性指数(IIC与PC)也存在协整关系,即这些变量之间确实存在长期均衡关系;(3)格兰杰因果关系检验中,在不同滞后期的情况下,大部分的结果表明景观连接度指数(IIC与PC)是景观结构指数(CA、AI、CONTAG)的格兰杰成因,说明景观连接度指数信息有助于预测景观结构指数的变化。 Abstract:Characteristics of urban artificial landscape have permeated into natural and semi-natural landscapes. Prior studies focused on landscape pattern analysis and description in rapid urbanization areas but neglect the dynamic changes between structures and connectivity of artificial urban landscape and their internal interactions. We measured two landscape indices (landscape structures and landscape connectivity) and presented an integrated approach (the cointegration and causality) to explore the urban expansion of Dongguan, a rapidly growing city in southern China, since 1988 to 2009. Analyses of seven landscape indices indicates a clear dynamic change in the expansion of Donguan. We divided this expansion into four different periods, that is early natural and semi-natural landscapes dominated urban areas in 1988-1990, followed by rapid 'extension' and 'linear development' period through 1990-1999, and then urbanization developed steadily period ('sprawl') during 1999-2005, and the recent 'infilling' stage since 2005-2009 characterized by urban development? The results show that: (1) According to variation characteristics of seven indices, the period is divided into four stages. The first is 1988-1990, in which the natural and semi-natural landscapes such as farmland, woodland were dominant, while urban artificial areas were small and had low density and aggregation. The second period is 1990-1999, in which urban artificial landscape increased rapidly with high density and aggregation. Then, we named the urban land expansion as 'extension' and 'linear development' type. The skeleton of the city gradually formed and the urban artificial landscape was in the dominant position, while natural and semi-natural landscapes such as farmland, woodland were small with low density and aggregation. The third period is 1999-2005. The total area of urban artificial landscape grew steadily and we named the urban land expansion as 'sprawl' type. The last is 2005-2009. Urban artificial landscape grew further and we named the urban land expansion as 'infilling' type. (2) There exist cointegration relationships between class area (CA) and probability index of connectivity (PC), aggregation index (AI), contagion index (CONTAG), and connectivity indices IIC and PC. This indicates that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among these variables and thereby no internal mechanism would break down the equilibrium of urban system. (3) Granger causality test shows that landscape connectivity indices (IIC and PC) are the Granger Causes of landscape structure indices (CA, AI, CONTAG), which suggests the landscape connectivity indices can be used to predict the change of landscape structures. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献