Abstract
The uncontrolled reentry of space object is one of the serious problems that the space agencies face. This paper presents a new reentry prediction method which estimates the reentry time and point using multiple sets of orbital elements and an error-propagation model. In the low-altitude orbit, the dominant perturbing force is air drag. Analyzing how the air drag affects the accuracy of the orbit propagation, we constructed an error-propagation model. Combining the multiple orbital elements with this model, this method estimates the optimal air drag and predicts a reentry time accurately. To demonstrate the performance of this method, a reentry prediction experiment was conducted. The experimental prediction took an example of the H-II Rocket 2nd Body that actually reentered on 27 January, 1999. Results show that the method can provide accurate predictions of reentry.
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