对人民币汇率影响因素的实证分析

Abstract

随着中国经济的发展和人民币加入SDR货币篮子，人民币汇率问题已日益成为关注的焦点。影响人民币汇率的因素有很多，例如：中国经济发展状况，购买力平价，利率平价，国际收支，本文根据上述影响因素分别选取了GDP，中美相对消费价格指数，中美利差，进出口差额增长率这几个因素，运用简单计量经济学知识，建立一元线性回归方程，并对该模型分别从经济意义，统计意义和计量经济学三方面进行检验，判定上述因素对人民币汇率的影响，再根据近期专家和各类机构的预测结合自己的分析对人民币的未来走势做出预测和提出相关政策意见促进汇率的稳定和机制的改革。 As China’s economic develops rapidly and Chinese Yuan has joined in SDR, the issue of RMB ex-change rate has come to the forefront. The fluctuation of exchange rate is associated with a multi-tude of factors such as the growth of the economic in China, the purchasing power parity, the inter-est rate parity, the balance of international payment, etc. According to the factors mentioned above, four varieties including Gross Domestic Production (GDP), the relative consumer index of China and the U.S, the Interest Rate spread of China and the US and the growth rate of the balance of trade are selected in this article. Combined with some knowledge of econometrics, these factors will be con-structed into a simple linear regression. Then the regression equation will be tested via the meth-ods of economic, statistics and econometrics accordingly to find out how these factors influence the exchange rate. Lastly, the paper will forecast the future tendency of RMB exchange rate and put forward some suggestions to promote the exchange stability.