空气质量指数对股票市场的影响

Abstract

随着各国城市化、工业化的飞速发展，气候问题已在全球范围内受到广泛重视。纵观2016年于杭州举办的G20峰会，全球气候治理、能源环境问题等成为各国协商的重点。空气污染已不仅仅隶属于环境能源问题的范畴，也同时与经济生活息息相关。本文主要探讨空气污染对股票市场的影响，认为主要的影响渠道主要有两种，即通过投资者情绪以及当局者政策制定来分别影响投资者个人和企业的决策，进而引起股票市场的波动。运用Z检验法并构建线性模型，探讨中国空气指数对股票市场的影响，同时用美国、英国等国家作为对照。本文针对研究结果得出的结论是：空气指数对股票收益率无显著影响，但对换手率的影响稍大于对收益率的影响；近年来，投资者看好抗雾霾题材的股票，对此类股票的交易热情逐渐高涨。 With the rapid advance of urbanization and industrialization, climate issues have been taking center stage in the world. At the 2016 G20 Summit in Hangzhou, the global climate governance and increasing environmental problems have become the focus of the consultant. Air pollution is not only an environmental issue, but also closely related to the economic life. In this paper, two major channels of air pollution influencing the stock market are considered. First, the emotional insta-bility of individual investors caused by air pollution may have an impact on their investing deci-sions; second, the change or enforcement of government policy may affect the corporate decision makers. Eventually the stock market can be affected. The data come from representative cities of China, and the data of some other countries are analyzed as a contrast. Methods of Z-test and linear regression are utilized. Some conclusions can be drawn from the results. The negative effect on stock returns caused by air pollutants is not significant, but the influence on turnover rate of the air quality is slightly bigger than on the stock returns. Also, the anti-haze stocks have been gaining more appreciations of investors than the energy-consumption stocks in recent years.