Abstract
The measures based on IMO-conventions bring into play by the convention ratification as a result of the consensus of each nation. Therefore, the effect of the convention can be expected if more nations ratify it earlier. One of the measures to urge all nations cooperate actively toward the goal of the convention is to become able to predict quantitatively how much the decrease of marine casualty will be expected in the future by the implementation of the convention. If the effect can be predicted and can be announced it officially, the increase of nations to adopt the convention will be expected. Recently, the importance of the prior evaluation has been recognized, and the technique called Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) has been introduced in IMO. The basic concept of this technique is to guarantee the logical necessity to realize the concrete countermeasure based on the consensus among countries of the marine society. In the present paper, paying attention to correlation between promotion of convention and the casualty decrease, we tried to approach to the strategic designing of the ratification pace which leads to the goal of safety at sea before the new convention is carried out. The achievements in the present paper, which enable the future prediction of casualty decrease by the ratification of convention, have the prior evaluation based on FSA realize.
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