Abstract
Using the yearly egg production and catch of the Japanese sardine in the period 1951-87, including periods of low stock level, increasing stock level, and high stock level, the annual change in the reproduction index was calculated. The effect of fishing on the recruitment of the Japanese sardine was evaluated. Under the assumption that over the next ten years, reproduction will have the same average and variance as in the period of low stock level, and that over the following five years, these will be the same as in the period of increasing stock level, the total catch amount for these 15 years and the final stock level would be low if 1/2 of the stock were caught every year.
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