公園の利用変動に関する研究

Abstract

This study is objected to research the fluctuation of the number of peoples who come and use a park. The fluctuation of use is very important phenomena and the certain understanding of the rule of fluctuation make it possible to estimate the number of peoples coming to a park on a special day, or annual number of peoples by records of research in several days and to establish the research method of parkuse.In the research of this time, the writer led and considered “User Prediction Equation” based upon factors which are according to certain and given systematic fluctuation in use. The subjects of the study are the followings: Ueno Zoological Garden, Zindai Botanical Garden, Shinjuku Gyoen Park, Rikugien Park, Koishikawa Korakuen Park each in the year of Showa 46 and Shizen Kyoikuen Park through the years of Showa 43 to 47. The number of users are caliculated based upen the number of peoples who paid fee to enter Pay-Parks.The result of the research: The writer established the Prediction Equation by means of “Quantitication Theory” taking weather, days of the week and seasons as factors of fluctuation.From the result, the writer obtained stable figures in “Three Factors and Nine Category”, that is, fine, cloudy and rain for weather, holiday, Saturday and week day for days of the week, Spring, Summer/Autumn and Winter for seasons. The multiple corretation coefficient is 0.8 and more.