两阶段优化在水库调度图中的应用研究

Abstract

水库常规调度图按时段出水位确定该时段出力(或出流)决策一般不考虑径流预报，但在水库实际调度中则可利用入库径流预报来提高水库的运行效率。本文基于水库两阶段优化问题，在分析目标函数单调性的基础上，将两阶段优化的理论应用于水库调度图中，并以三峡水库为研究背景，按照原设计调度图和两天预报结果，进行水库调度的优化运行。结果表明：较原模拟结果，优化后可增加年均发电量19.47亿KW·h，显著提高了水库的运行效益。 Generally, inflow forecast is not concerned when using conventional operating rule curves to calculate the output (or outflow) based on initial water level. While in real reservoir operation, inflow forecast can be added to improve the operation efficiency. Based on the reservoir two-stage optimization problem and the analysis of the monotonous of the objective function, the two-stage optimization theory is applied to the reservoir operation rule curves in this paper. With the case study of Three Gorge Reservoir, in accordance with initial operating rule curves and two days inflow forecast, the optimal operation of the reservoir is obtained. It is shown that: compared with the initial simulation result, the proposed method improves the hydropower greatly.