ＩＰＣＣのＳＲＥＳシナリオに基づく２１００年までの銅の需給シミュレーション

Abstract

The aim of this study is to quantitatively assess upcoming shortages in the supply of copper, which sustains essential socio-economic activities. This study clarifies copper shortage and depletion years through demand forecast modeling and supply potential assumptions. Copper demand models were built for industry sectors based upon GDP (gross domestic production) and population, referring to four SRES scenarios (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) published by IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). We considered the following four supply potentials: (i) resource, (ii) resource based, (iii) technological limitation based available for gold mining, and (iv) geological limitation based on crustal abundance and mining depth. The algorithms for calculating the years of shortage and depletion were as follows: (i) total copper demand scenario from 2000 to 2100 is fitted linear, (ii) the inverse slope of the linear-fitted curve is assumed for copper supply from the supply peak (i.e., year of shortage), (iii) years of the supply shortage and the depletion are calculated so that cumulative supply amount covered by the two lines plus historical production of copper before 1999 is equal to the assumed supply potentials. The total demand is forecasted at the maximum for A1 scenario and at the minimum for B1 scenario of the SRES scenario. The coming shortage years for the four SRES scenarios are (i) within 2008 and 2013 based on the resource, (ii) within 2015 and 2024 based on the resource based, and (iii) within 2047 and 2085 based on both technological and geological limitations. The depletion years are in the latter half of the 21st Century for both resource and resource based, and within the 22nd Century for both the limitation based. The afraid coming shortage of copper will be an immediate and significant problem for the next one or two decades. Depletion and shortages of copper will be coming probably during the 21st Century, even though progress in mining technologies is assumed. This implies possible threats to sustainable development are coming from demand/supply of copper as well as global warming.