景德镇市行业用水演变及其驱动力分析

Abstract

根据2003年至2014年景德镇市农业、工业、生活、生态环境等行业的用水量资料，分析景德镇市近12年来行业用水的变化发展，结合SPSS统计软件对引起行业用水变化的主要驱动力因子进行分析和说明。结果表明：景德镇市的水资源利用以农业用水为主，占用水总量的50.6%，工业用水占用水总量的34.5%，比重相对较大，生活用水和生态环境用水所占用水总量的比重较小，分别为13.9%和1.0%；景德镇市用水总量基本稳定，无整体上升或下降趋势，农业用水量及其所占用水总量的比重呈现整体上升的趋势，工业用水量及其所占用水总量的比重呈现出先上升而后下降的趋势，生活用水量及其所占用水总量的比重近10年来呈现逐年攀升的趋势，生态环境用水量及其所占用水总量的比重呈现略微上升的态势；因子分析的结果显示人口因素、经济发展因素和农田灌溉因素是景德镇市行业用水演变的主要驱动力。 According to the agricultural, industrial, life, public and ecological environment water use data of Jing-dezhen city from 2003 to 2014, the paper analyzes the change of water use in various industries in Jing-dezhen city during the last 12 years, and analyzes and explains the main driving factors of the develop-ment of water use in various industries by using SPSS statistical software. The results show that the water resources utilization in Jingdezhen city is mainly agricultural water use, which accounts for 50.6% of the total amount; the proportion of industrial water use is relatively larger, which accounts for 34.5% of the total amount; the proportion of water used for life, public and ecological environment is small, which accounts for 13.9% and 1.0% of the total amount. The total amount of water use in Jingdezhen is basically stable, and there is no overall rise or fall, agricultural water use, water use of the ecological environment are showing an overall upward trend and the proportion of total water use in agriculture and ecological environment is also increasing; industrial water use and its proportion of the total water use showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing trend; water use for life and public and their proportion of the total water use in the past 10 years has been rising year by year. Factor analysis results show that the main driving force of the development of water use in various industries in Jingdezhen city is the population, economic development and farmland irrigation.