基于系统动力学的鄱阳湖区多维福祉时空差异演变与情景模拟

Abstract

基于资本框架的福祉测度是可持续发展导向下多维福祉研究的重要趋势。基于资本框架构建多维福祉指数，应用基尼系数、空间自相关等方法分析2006-2018年鄱阳湖区38个区县多维福祉指数的时空演化特征，并借助系统动力学方法构建鄱阳湖区多维福祉系统，模拟不同发展情景下鄱阳湖区福祉系统的变化态势。研究发现：（1）2006-2018年鄱阳湖区多维福祉水平得到明显提升，福祉水平空间差异持续缩小。西湖区、东湖区、青山湖区、青云谱区等一直是鄱阳湖区福祉水平高值区，也是福祉水平的高-高集聚区；余干县、九江县、都昌县、庐山市等滨湖地区的福祉水平相对较低，但其后进优势明显，并逐步退出福祉低-低集聚区，福祉水平低-低集聚区的范围大幅缩小。（2）鄱阳湖区多维福祉水平仍有较大的提升空间，可持续发展模式是提升鄱阳湖区福祉水平的优选途径。社会资本与人力资本的投入是提升鄱阳湖区福祉最有效的手段，有助于福祉水平的短期提升；经济资本是鄱阳湖区福祉水平长期发展的不竭动力。注重发挥高福祉集聚区的带动作用，着力激发低福祉区县的福祉后发优势，加强四大资本间的协同作用，发挥社会资本、人力资本对福祉水平的快速提升效应，培育经济资本以实现对区域福祉水平的长期驱动，是推动鄱阳湖区福祉空间均衡发展，减缓人民日益增长的美好生活需要和不平衡不充分发展之间的矛盾的关键。;Under sustainable development guidance, it's a significant trend that well-being is measured by multiple dimensions based on the capital perspective. In this paper, we build a multi-dimensional well-being index from the capital perspective. Then, by using the Gini coefficient and spatial autocorrelation method, we analyze the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of multi-dimensional well-being index in 38 districts and counties of the Poyang Lake area from 2006 to 2018. We also use the method of system dynamics to simulate the changing situation of the Poyang Lake area's well-being system under different development situations. We found that (1) From 2006 to 2018, the level of multi-dimensional well-being in the Poyang Lake area improved significantly. The sustainable development model that coordinated the human capital, economic capital, social capital, and natural capital is the best way to develop Poyang Lake area's well-being. The well-being index of Yugan County, Jiujiang County, Duchang County, Lushan city is always low, but these counties' growth rate is higher than that in other countries. The area of Low-Low agglomeration is reducing significantly with the analysis of spatial autocorrelation. (2) Under different scenarios, the Poyang Lake area's well-being index improved significantly, and synergic development mode among human capital, economic capital, social capital and natural capital is the best way about the development of Poyang Lake area. The investment of social capital and human capital is the most effective way to improve the Poyang Lake area's well-being in a short time. While economic capital is an inexhaustible driving force for the long-term development of the well-being. The development of Poyang Lake area should focus on the driving role of the high well-being countries and increase the growth rate of well-being in low well-being areas. And it also needs to foster economic capital and strengthen the synergies among the four capitals to achieve equilibrium and long-term development. In this way, it can help to solve the contradiction between unbalanced and inadequate development and the people's ever-growing needs for a better life.