任务性质对未来任务时间估计的影响及其理论机制

Abstract

未来任务时间估计是指人们凭借记忆和经验对将要进行的任务所需要的时间进行判断的过程。人们对未来任务的时间估计会产生偏差，对其心理机制的解释主要包括计划谬误理论、记忆偏差理论和解释水平理论。任务性质(包括任务持续时间的长短、任务的复杂度和任务熟悉度等)会对未来任务的时间估计产生影响，各理论从不同角度阐释了任务性质对未来任务的时间估计的影响。未来研究需进一步探索任务性质与人格特质在影响未来任务时间估计背后的关系以及未来任务时间估计的脑机制。 The estimation of task duration in the future refers to the process of judging the time taken to complete a task in the future with memory and experience. The estimation is biased, which has been mainly explained by planning fallacy theory, memory biased theory and construal level theory in the aspect of psychological mechanism. Task characters including task duration, task complexity and task familiarity has effects on the process, which has also been expounded by these three theories from different sides. The focus of future research should involve the relationship between task characters and personality traits in the process and the brain mechanism throughout the process.The estimation of task duration in the future refers to the process of judging the time taken to complete a task in the future with memory and experience. The estimation is biased, which has been mainly explained by planning fallacy theory, memory biased theory and construal level theory in the aspect of psychological mechanism. Task characters including task duration, task complexity and task familiarity have effects on the process, which have also been expounded by these three theories from different sides. The focus of future research should involve the relationship between task characters and personality traits in the process and the brain mechanism throughout the process.