Abstract
A model for determination of post-earthquake fire hazard in urban regions is formulated, which considers building density and properties, wind velocity, fire fighting response and deterioration of this response with increasing seismic intensity. The model is applicable to specific earthquakes and can determine the annual expected losses due to fire spreading on a probabilistic basis. The model's results are compared with observed fire spreading in the 1923 Tokyo, 1948 Fukui and 1978 Miyagiken-oki earthquakes, with satisfactory agreement. Application of the model to the Osaka Japan region indicates fire spreading annual expected losses to be about half of structural shaking losses, although fire losses can exceed shaking losses under certain seismic conditions.
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