淮河流域干旱时空演变特征及成因

Abstract

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 淮河流域干旱时空演变特征及成因 DOI: 10.5846/stxb201911042314 作者: 作者单位: 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目（2019YFA0606900）；安徽高校协同创新项目（GXXT 2019047）；国家自然科学基金项目（41601023，41771536）；安徽省自然科学基金（1808085QD117）；北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室开放课题和安徽师范大学研究生科研创新与实践项目（2019kycx051） Spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of meteorological drought and climate influence factors Author: Affiliation: Fund Project: 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:基于淮河流域149气象站点1962-2016年标准化降水蒸散发指数、16个气候因子和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料，通过小波分析和旋转经验正交函数等手段，分析淮河流域干旱重心的转移轨迹，研究气象干旱与气候因子的相关关系，并通过大气环流的异常特征揭示气象干旱的主要成因。结果表明：（1）干旱重心分布主要从淮河流域中心向四周扩散，淮河流域大范围区域呈干旱化态势。2013年干旱重心从西北部→中部→西南部→中部变化，随着干旱面积的增大，干旱重心由四周向中心移动。（2） PDO、ONI、Nino4、Nino3.4、MEI、BEST与SPEI均呈显著正相关关系，SOI、TNI与SPEI则呈显著负相关关系。（3）干旱周期主要集中在1970年代、1990年代和2000年代存在2-5年显著周期，气候因子在3.4-4.5年存在显著周期。（4）春季高纬度地区的气流南下，与印度洋、孟加拉湾北上气流导致南湿北干；夏季蒙古气旋偏弱与异常偏北风覆盖导致东干西湿；秋季大陆高压控制，偏北风和南风相互影响造成东干西湿；冬季盛行下沉气流与盛行东南风造成东湿西干的气候特征。 Abstract:In this study, the shift track of the gravity of drought area was analyzed based on 16 climate index' the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the standardized precipitation evaporation (SPEI) from the 149 meteorological stations from 1962 to 2016 in the Huai River Basin. While the correlation coefficient between meteorological drought and climate index was calculated by the Wavelet analysis and Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function method in Huai River Basin with the aim of revealing drought conditions across the Huai River Basin in the anomalous largescale atmospheric circulation. The results of this study indicated that: (1) the spatial distribution of the gravity of drought area mainly showed decreased from the center of Huai River Basin to the surrounding area. Moreover, SPEI showed a decreasing trend in in most parts of the Huai River Baisn. The gravity of drought area shifted from northwest to central, southwest and central in 2003 and the gravity of drought area shifted to the center with the increasing of drought area. (2) There is a significant positive correlation between SPEI and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Oceanic Nino Index, Nino4, Nino3.4, Multivariable Enso Index, Bivariate Enso Timeseries, while There is a significant negative correlation between SPEI and Southern Oscillation Index, Traffic Nino Index. (3) The drought was mainly concentrated in the 1970s, 1990s and 2000s with a significant period of 2-5a, and the climate index had a significant period of 3.4-4.5a. (4) The water vapor from the Indian Ocean and the bay of Bengal is meet the high latitude cold air, leading to the moisture in the south and the dryness in the north in spring. The weakly Mongolian cyclone and the abnormal wind in the norther has led to the dry in the eastern and wet in the western in summer in the Huai River Basin. The continental high pressure dominated in autumn, the north wind and south wind influenced each other, which is caused the dry in the eastern and wet in the western. The eastern of basin show wet and western of basin show dry, which is caused by the prevailing downdraft and the prevailing southeast in winter. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献