基于多重工作假说的水文模拟理论与框架

Abstract

由于环境系统本身的复杂性，加上气候变化以及人类活动的影响，使得现有的水文模型在模拟和预测自然过程中存在很大的不确定性，这在一定程度上限制了模拟与预报结果的可靠性和实用价值。针对这个问题，本文提出了建立基于组件技术的模块化流域水文模型，结合研究流域的气候和下垫面信息，确定可供选择的相对合理的假说模型和参数；运用每个假说模型进行模拟试验；同时建立基于贝叶斯理论的流域水文模拟多重因子评价诊断方法进行模型假说检验的基于多重工作假说的水文模拟框架。这对于完善水文预报理论、改善预报精度以及为防洪调度提供科学的决策依据，具有重要的理论意义和实际应用价值。Due to complexity of environment system and impact of climate change and human activity, there are many uncertainties in hydrological modeling and forecasting, which affect the reliability and practicability of the simulation and prediction results to some degree. To solve this problem, a framework of hydrological modeling based on multiple working hypotheses was presented, in-cluding developing a hydrological model based on CORBA (Common Object Request Broker Archi-tecture), to provide more alterative model hypotheses and parameter based on characteristics of climate and underlying in study basin, for model hypothesis testing; and establishing a multi-fac- tors diagnostic approach based on Bayesian theory for model evaluation. Multiple working hypo-theses for hydrological modeling will benefit the improvement of the hydrological forecasting theory and accuracy, and provide the scientific decision for flood control and operation.