東京とその周辺における火山災害の歴史と将来

Abstract

This paper reviews historical volcanic disasters that have affected the Tokyo Metropolitan area and its surroundings, central Japan, and discusses the dangers of volcanic disasters occurring in future. The 1707 (Hoei) eruption of Fuji volcano, the 1783 (Tenmei) eruption of Asama volcano, and the so-called Kanto Loam, volcanic soil deposits containing large quantities of Holocene to Pleistocene fall-out tephras, suggest the potential hazards that originate from volcanic activities. Small to moderate eruptions (VEI 1 to 2) of Asama volcano have resulted in minor ash falls in and around Tokyo every one to two decades. It is most likely that Asama volcano will generate minor ash falls in the near future. Volcanic disasters caused by larger but rare eruptions of VEI 4 to 5 are considered, referring to the 1707 (Hoei) eruption of Fuji volcano, and measures and predictions for the next eruption of Fuji volcano. In this paper, volcanic disasters affecting Tokyo in the near future are not only those caused by ash falls but also those caused by lahar along the Tone, Edo, Sakawa, and Sagami rivers related to Asama, Haruna, and Fuji volcanoes, because the landform developments of these areas in Holocene and historical disasters suggest that these drainage basins have the potential for lahar disasters. In addition, more severe eruptions of VEI 6 to 7 are considered for their impacts and frequencies referring to geological records of air-fall tephras and/or pyroclastic flow deposits such as VEI 6 Hakone-Tokyo tephra (ca. 66 ka) and VEI 7 Aira-Tn tephra (ca. 29 ka).