中央アジア諸国における統治と大統領リーダーシップ

Abstract

The institution of the presidency in post-Soviet Central Asian countries is static, aside from the turmoil in Kyrgyzstan. The same person has held the post for a long time and is authorized by legislative procedures, such as referendums, to prolong his presidential term. In Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, there has been no change in the government since independence. However, presidential leadership in these two countries is a variable for understanding the mechanism of authoritarian regimes in the region. In this essay, the author argues several topics for research on governance in Central Asia, that have been insufficiently covered by previous works. First, trends of political transition in the region are better understood through analysis of leadership in competitive authoritarianism. Quoting Robert C. Tucker, the author identifies two types of presidents in Central Asia: “Event-making” leaders and “eventful” ones. Second, referring to Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way’s work, the author takes the position that leadership is less important than international and domestic structural variables such as leverage and linkage from the West (Europe and the United States). The author discusses the case of Kazakhstan to argue that state organizations and the ruling party have been strengthened in order to support presidential leadership. Other Central Asian countries are also developing the personalization of political power using these institutions for governance.