Abstract
In this paper, we study how to forecast the next-day expected output of hydropower energy based on the past rainfall record in the reference area. The Tank Model, which has been conventionally applied to this type of forecast, has been improved by employing Kalman filter stepwise estimation in order to accommodate seasonal and yearly variations of rainfall water runoff conditions. Our Kalman Filter Tank Model (KF-Tank Model) yielded a broader choice of parameters while maintaining an acceptable average forecast error level of about ±0.05 PU per forecast period. It is also shown that the error correction mechanism of the KF Tank Model can remain robust to snowfall and snowmelt seasons without requiring parameter revisions of the model. 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Electr Eng Jpn, 173(2): 33–41, 2010; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/eej.20995
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