Abstract
通过收集和整理湘江流域历史水文气象资料，利用统计降尺度方法建立湘江流域气温、降水和蒸发等要素同全球气候模式大尺度因子的统计关系，分析和预测了未来湘江流域水文气象要素的变化情况。研究结果表明，未来2010~2099年湘江流域气温和蒸发有较明显的上升趋势，降水变化趋势不明显。 Based on the collection of historical hydro-climate data, such as precipitation, temperature and evaporation in the Xiangjiang Basin, the relationship between the local hydro-climate variables and large scale climate predictors of GCM has been established by using Automated Statistical Downscaling model. The future change of those hydro-climate variables was predicted by using this technical frame during the period of 2010-2099 inthis basin. The results showed that temperature and evaporation will increase significantly, while precipitation has no significant change trend in future.
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