原子力発電のエネルギーセキュリティレベルの向上に果たす役割に関わる評価研究

Abstract

Nuclear energy has a great potential to improve energy security. Meanwhile, because of various kinds of risk nuclear power programs of advanced nations do not follow the same course to reach the goal of fuel recycling, which is the most valuable advantage of nuclear energy. This study analyzes the past trend and prospect of energy security levels of advanced nations by assessing their levels on several indexes of energy security. The quantitative analysis of the past trend shows that Japan has improved its level mainly by diversifying its energy supply sources. This study also leads to scenario planning on nuclear power with probable risks as scenario drivers, such as accident, moratorium, weak industrial capability, and uranium resource constraints. The quantitative prospect with the scenario planning shows that the nations without nuclear power programs would stay at lower levels, while the others including Japan would keep their levels beyond the average. A case study shows that an aggressive program has suppressive impact on the improvement, which is also observed in a French case. These outcomes suggest that a nuclear power program should pursue an appropriate portion in an energy supply structure from the viewpoint of energy security.