MyPyPSA-Ger: Introducing CO2 taxes on a multi-regional myopic roadmap of the German electricity system towards achieving the 1.5 °C target by 2050

Abstract

This paper will introduce the open-source model MyPyPSA-Ger, a myopic optimization model developed to represent the German energy system with a detailed mapping of the electricity sector, on a highly disaggregated level, spatially and temporally, with regional differences and investment limitations. Furthermore, this paper will give new outlooks on the German federal government 2050 emissions goals of the electricity sector to become greenhouse gas neutral by proposing new CO2 allowance strategies. Moreover, the regional differences in Germany will be discussed, their role and impact on the energy transition, and which regions and states will drive the renewable energy utilization forward.Following a scenario-based analysis, the results point out the major keystones of the energy transition path from 2020 to 2050. Solar, onshore wind, and gas-fired power plants will play a fundamental role in the future electricity systems. Biomass, run of river, and offshore wind technologies will be utilized in the system as base-load generation technologies. Solar and onshore wind will be installed almost everywhere in Germany. However, due to the nature of Germany’s weather and geographical features, the southern and northern regions will play a more important role in the energy transition.Higher CO2 allowance costs will help achieve the 1.5-degree-target of the electricity system and will allow for a rapid transition. Moreover, the more expensive, and the earlier the CO2 tax is applied to the system, the less it will cost for the energy transition, and the more emissions will be saved throughout the transition period. An earlier phase-out of coal power plants is not necessary with high CO2 taxes, due to the change in power plant’s unit commitment, as they prioritize gas before coal power plants. Having moderate to low CO2 allowance cost or no clear transition policy will be more expensive and the CO2 budget will be exceeded. Nonetheless, even with no policy, renewables still dominate the energy mix of the future.However, maintaining the maximum historical installation rates of both national and regional levels, with the current emissions reduction strategy, will not be enough to reach the level of climate-neutral electricity system. Therefore, national and regional installation requirements to achieve the federal government emission reduction goals are determined. Energy strategies and decision makers will have to resolve great challenges in order to stay in line with the 1.5-degree-target.