Myanmar: Long-Term Scenarios for Sustained Macroeconomic Growth

Abstract

We use a dynamic forecasting model to evaluate a wide array of opportunities for sustained economic growth in Myanmar. Our simulation results suggest that the government of Myanmar can advance potential growth drivers, by maintaining a stable macroeconomic environment that is conducive to private investment, promoting human capital development and public investment, facilitating domestic and international private agencies for market development, and strengthening regional economic integration. The government needs a balanced approach to sector interests to promote inclusive and equitable growth. Increasing agricultural productivity, for example, will not only benefit the country’s rural poor majority, but it will also release labor resources to facilitate industrial and service sector development. Conversely, industrial and urban development will facilitate agri-food supply chains, improving market access and real incomes in rural areas. Public commitments to improving infrastructure, education, and public health will also be essential to realizing Myanmar’s vast economic potential.