Myanmar: analyzing problems of transition and intervention

Abstract

Myanmar's State Peace and Development Council touts the 2010 elections as an important milestone on the roadmap to democracy. While the consensus among scholars is that the result is a foregone conclusion, these elections may also mark the beginning of a transition. As a transition from authoritarian rule may lead to internal chaos and result in calls for external intervention, the relevant dimensions of intervention are explored. The capabilities, interests and approaches of key external players in the context of Myanmar are identified. Both India and China have capabilities and multiple interests in Myanmar. However, the India–China rivalry and the lack of consensus around the responsibility to protect the doctrines are identified as risk factors. In spite of its shortcomings, the ASEAN Regional Forum remains the most appropriate venue to explore possible responses in case of chaos in Myanmar, which would be a tough test of its aptitude and relevance. The forum should upgrade organizational and practical capacities to respond to major crises such as a hypothetical collapse of central authority in Myanmar.