Abstract

Research background: The most important indicators that describe the situation on the labour market are the unemployment rate and the unemployment duration. If both these indicators are high, then the human capital deteriorates. Therefore, it seems justified to analyse the mutual relationships between them.
 Purpose of the article: The article aims at finding the relationships between the unemployment rate and the unemployment duration, and checking if the mutual courses of these two indicators in the Visegrad Group countries are connected with each other.
 Methods: The business cycle clock methodology will be used to analyse the relationship between the unemployment rate and the median unemployment duration. Next, the similarity of the course of these two indicators will be analysed by means of the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient and the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) technique.
 Findings & Value added: Amongst the analysed countries, Czechia, Poland and Slovakia were, to a certain degree, similar with respect to the mutual course of the unemployment rate and the unemployment duration. Until the peak of the financial crisis in 2009, the unemployment rate and the unemployment duration decreased. During the next years, the unemployment rate was increasing and after 2-3 years it was followed by the increase of the unemployment duration. The situation improved after the year 2013 ? both indicators were decreasing. In Hungary, on the contrary, the unemployment rate was increasing or steady until 2012, and during the following years it started to decrease. However, the course of the unemployment duration was completely different than in remaining countries. The value added of the article is application of the business clock cycle and the Dynamic Time Warping technique in finding the relationships and similarity of courses between the unemployment rate and the unemployment duration.

Highlights

  • In the analyses of the labour market there are many measures and indicators allowing for the assessment of employment, wage and employment level, work conditions, labour costs or demand for work

  • In Poland the highest median unemployment duration was equal to 14.6 months (2005) and in Slovakia — 34.6 months (2007)

  • The article presents the analysis of relationship between the unemployment rate and unemployment duration in the Visegrad Group countries in years 2001–2017

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Summary

Introduction

In the analyses of the labour market there are many measures and indicators allowing for the assessment of employment, wage and employment level, work conditions, labour costs or demand for work. A lot of labour market research is done within the European Statistical System. The unemployment rate is the basic indicator in the analysis of the situation on the labour markets. It seems that both the unemployment rate and median unemployment duration describe changes on the labour market . When the economic situation deteriorates, the unemployment rate increases. It should imply the increase of the unemployment duration. What is the influence of an economic crisis on the unemployment rate and median unemployment duration and is this influence the same in various countries? The question arises: do these regularities always occur and do changes of both indicators occur simultaneously? What is the influence of an economic crisis on the unemployment rate and median unemployment duration and is this influence the same in various countries?

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