Mute swan (Cygnus olor) winter distribution and numerical trends over a 16-year period (1987/1988–2002/2003) in France

Abstract

The numbers of mute swans (Cygnus olor) at 98 wetland locations in France were monitored monthly during the winter (December–February) for 16 years by a national network of observers as part of a broader national wildfowl monitoring scheme. Log-linear Poisson regressions with TRIM software were used to estimate missing counts and produce national numbers and indices. These corrected indices were in turn used to calculate an average annual rate of change and the associated confidence interval that subsequently enabled the computation of a cumulated (global) rate of change and associated confidence interval. The latter were interpreted to classify the numerical trends over the whole period. For the six wetlands with the largest numbers of mute swans, average numbers of swans were also compared between wetlands and months. General Linear Models were then used to test simultaneously for (1) differences between years and between wetlands for each month and (2) between years and between months separately for each of the six wetlands. The mute swan average annual rate of change was >7% for each month. The global rate of variation corresponded to a “strong increase” after TRIM analyses. This result strongly supports the necessity of maintaining both national and international monitoring schemes in order to be able to quickly detect major increases in swan numbers at specific sites, particularly where increasing numbers may result in a conflict with farmers or in inter-specific competition with other waterbirds and/or represent a possible sanitary/public health hazard due to the potential for swans to carry avian influenza viruses.