Abstract
To estimate possible deviations in fuel consumption for heating based on meteorological observations of previous years, the integrated temperature difference inside and outside the building during the heating season is used. When the heating period is divided into two subperiods relative to the considered date (for example, before and after December 1), the accumulated and residual integral temperature differences are obtained. The assumption about the presence of a statistical relationship between the accumulated and residual integral temperature difference is confirmed. A model for predicting the probability of the expected values of the integral temperature difference for the upcoming heating period is developed. The model is focused on obtaining matrices of conditional probabilities of observations from intervals of dividing the accumulated integral temperature differences into intervals of residual integral temperature differences.
Highlights
Due to the long heating period and low winter temperatures, the study of climatic parameters of the heating period is of greater importance for Russia
Entropy is used to assess the efficiency of predicting the integral temperature difference inside and outside the building for the heating period using conditional probability matrices
Choosing a certain scenario for the implementation of the remaining part of the heating period using the matrices of conditional probabilities of the development scenario, we reduce the uncertainty of the future, thereby reducing the value of entropy
Summary
Due to the long heating period and low winter temperatures, the study of climatic parameters of the heating period is of greater importance for Russia. Residual integral temperature difference inside and outside the building: Bτ after = Bτ - Bτ before Is it possible to predict the indicator of the integral temperature difference for the heating period on the basis of meteorological observations of the beginning and the first half of the heating period? - I quadrant describes the distribution of heating periods corresponding to the "cold winter" (large values of accumulated and residual integral temperature differences);. - III quadrant describes the distribution of heating periods corresponding to "warm winter" (small values of accumulated and residual integral differences);. The positive values of the slope and correlation coefficients indicate a stable positive statistical relationship between the deviations of the accumulated and residual integral temperature difference inside and outside the building. The distributions of observations over Novosibirsk and Moscow are indicative, while “medium winters” and “cold winters” are typical for Irkutsk
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