Multiyear applications of WRF/Chem over continental U.S.: Model evaluation, variation trend, and impacts of boundary conditions

Abstract

AbstractMultiyear applications of an online‐coupled meteorology‐chemistry model allow an assessment of the variation trends in simulated meteorology, air quality, and their interactions to changes in emissions and meteorology, as well as the impacts of initial and boundary conditions (ICONs/BCONs) on simulated aerosol‐cloud‐radiation interactions over a period of time. In this work, the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry version 3.4.1 (WRF/Chem v. 3.4.1) with the 2005 Carbon Bond mechanism coupled with the Volatility Basis Set module for secondary organic aerosol formation (WRF/Chem‐CB05‐VBS) is applied for multiple years (2001, 2006, and 2010) over continental U.S. This work also examines the changes in simulated air quality and meteorology due to changes in emissions and meteorology and the model's capability in reproducing the observed variation trends in species concentrations from 2001 to 2010. In addition, the impacts of the chemical ICONs/BCONs on model predictions are analyzed. ICONs/BCONs are downscaled from two global models, the modified Community Earth System Model/Community Atmosphere model version 5.1 (CESM/CAM v5.1) and the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate model (MACC). The evaluation of WRF/Chem‐CB05‐VBS simulations with the CESM ICONs/BCONs for 2001, 2006, and 2010 shows that temperature at 2 m (T2) is underpredicted for all three years likely due to inaccuracies in soil moisture and soil temperature, resulting in biases in surface relative humidity, wind speed, and precipitation. With the exception of cloud fraction, other aerosol‐cloud variables including aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness are underpredicted for all three years, resulting in overpredictions of radiation variables. The model performs well for O3 and particulate matter with diameter less than or equal to 2.5 (PM2.5) for all three years comparable to other studies from literature. The model is able to reproduce observed annual average trends in O3 and PM2.5 concentrations from 2001 to 2006 and from 2006 to 2010 but is less skillful in simulating their observed seasonal trends. The 2006 and 2010 results using CESM and MACC ICONs/BCONs are compared to analyze the impact of ICONs/BCONs on model performance and their feedbacks to aerosol, clouds, and radiation. Comparing to the simulations with MACC ICONs/BCONs, the simulations with the CESM ICONs/BCONs improve the performance of O3 mixing ratios (e.g., the normalized mean bias for maximum 8 h O3 is reduced from −17% to −1% in 2010), PM2.5 in 2010, and sulfate in 2006 (despite a slightly larger normalized mean bias for PM2.5 in 2006). The impacts of different ICONs/BCONs on simulated aerosol‐cloud‐radiation variables are not negligible, with larger impacts in 2006 compared to 2010.