MULTI-VARIATE STATISTICS OF HYDRAULIC BOUNDARY CONDITIONS FOR THE ROTTERDAM HARBOUR EXTENSION

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to describe the hydraulic climate of the Southern NorthSea by statistical models and physical laws for wave heights, wind setup, wave periods and wind speed. The focus is on the selection and calibration of parametric physical models for the use in the description of the joint probability distribution of hydraulic loads. For the validation and calibration of these models, observations have been used. An application is presented about the Rotterdam harbour extension. INTRODUCTION In order to face future needs of space in the Rotterdam harbour, a land reclamation is under study. The project area of the planned harbour extension, called “Maasvlakte 2”, is located along the southern North Sea coast (figure 1). Sufficient protection of the area against flooding is created by a number of structures, like breakwaters, dikes, dams and dunes. It is important for design to determine the hydraulic loads on these structures. The origin of these loads are the different states of the hydraulic climate. To make probabilistic design and risk-based optimisation possible, the loads need to be described by a joint probability density function (JPDF). The hydraulic boundary conditions that are relevant for design are the water level (h) and the following long-term wave characteristics: significant wave height (Hs), peak period (Tp) and main wave direction (Th0). 1 Risk analysis specialist, Ministry of Transport Public Works and Water Management, Directorate-General for Public Works and Water Management, Civil Engineering Division, P.O. Box 20000, 3502 LA Utrecht, The Netherlands, P.webbers@bwd.rws.minvenw.nl 2 Risk analysis specialist, ARCADIS, P.O. Box 220, 3800 AE, Amersfoort, The Netherlands, H.G.Voortman@arcadis.nl 3 Assistant professor, Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Stevinweg 1, NL-2628 CN, Delft, The Netherlands, P.H.A.J.M.vanGelder@ct.tudelft.nl 4 Professor of hydraulic structures and probabilistic design, Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Stevinweg 1, NL-2628 CN, Delft, The Netherlands, J.K.Vrijling@ct.tudelft.nl