Abstract

Clinical and hemodynamic data from 189 patients sustaining an acute myocardial infarction complicated by pump failure were analyzed with a multivariate analysis method using correspondence analysis. A graphic decision-making system based on survival at 1 month was derived from a set of 101 patients. According to the scatter of patient data points on the factorial plane resulting from analysis, survival and nonsurvival zones were defined, and the position of a given patient within these zones was considered a reliable estimate of likelihood of survival. Then, the decision-making rule was applied to a set of 88 patients. Every new patient whose data fell within the nonsurvival zone was referred for consideration of intraaortic Counterpulsation. Thus, 43 patients were predicted to be nonsurvivors; 26 of these (group I) underwent balloon counterpulsation; the remaining 17 formed group II. The two groups were considered comparable. Seven patients in group I and none in group II survived for more than 1 month (probability [p] = 0.02); it was concluded that counterpulsation improves short-term survival. The analysis of baseline measurements demonstrated that a good prediction of short-term survival was feasible in the patients undergoing circulatory assistance. Thus, patients who are salvaged in these circumstances are probably in a less severe condition than others and mechanical assistance may not be of value in every patient predicted to be a nonsurvivor. Of the seven shortterm survivors, only three survived for more than 1 year. This low long-term survival rate (11 percent) was related to extensive myocardial and coronary arterial lesions found on angiography in survivors as well as in counterpulsation-dependent patients.

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