Multivariate Mixtures of Normal Distributions: Properties, Random Vector Generation, Fitting, and as Models of Market Daily Changes

Abstract

Mixtures of normal distributions provide a useful modeling extension of the normal distribution—both univariate and multivariate. Unlike the normal distribution, mixtures of normals can capture the kurtosis (fat tails) and nonzero skewness often necessary for accurately modeling a variety of real-world variables. An efficient analytical Monte Carlo method is proposed for considering multivariate mixtures of normal distributions having arbitrary covariance matrices. The method consists of a linear transformation of a multivariate normal having a computed covariance matrix into the desired multivariate mixture of normal distributions. The computed covariance matrix is derived analytically. Among the properties of the multivariate mixture of normals that we demonstrate is that any linear combination of mixtures of normal distributions is also a mixture of normal distributions. Methods of fitting mixtures of normal distributions are briefly discussed. A motivating example carried throughout this paper is the use of multivariate mixtures of normals for modeling daily changes in market variables.