Abstract
The French Mediterranean area is subject to intense rainfall events which might cause flash floods, the main natural hazard in the area. Flood-risk rainfall is defined as rainfall with a high spatial average and encompasses rainfall which might lead to flash floods. We aim to compare eight multivariate density models for multi-site flood-risk rainfall. In particular, an accurate characterization of the spatial variability of flood-risk rainfall is crucial to help understand flash flood processes. Daily data from eight rain gauge stations at the Gardon at Anduze, a small Mediterranean catchment, are used in this work. Each multivariate density model is made of a combination of a marginal model and a dependence structure. Two marginal models are considered: the Gamma distribution (parametric) and the Log-Normal mixture (non-parametric). Four dependence structures are included in the comparison: Gaussian, Student t, Skew Normal and Skew t in increasing order of complexity. They possess a representative set of theoretical properties (symmetry/asymmetry and asymptotic dependence/independence). The multivariate models are compared in terms of three types of criteria: (1) separate evaluation of the goodness-of-fit of the margins and of the dependence structures, (2) model selection with a leave-one-out evaluation of the Anderson-Darling and Cramer-Von Mises statistics and (3) comparison in terms of two hydrologically interpretable quantities (return periods of the spatial average and conditional probabilities of exceedances). The key outcome of the comparison is that the Skew Normal with the Log-Normal mixture margins outperform significantly the other models. The asymmetry introduced by the Skew Normal is an added-value with respect to the Gaussian. Therefore, the Gaussian dependence structure, although widely used in the literature, is not recommended for the data in this study. In contrast, the asymptotically dependent models did not provide a significant improvement over the asymptotically independent ones.
Highlights
The French Mediterranean area is subject to intense rainfall events occurring mainly in the fall
Flood-risk rainfall is defined as rainfall with a high spatial average and encompasses rainfall which might lead to flash floods
In the model acronyms, GC and TC stand for Gaussian and Student t copula and SN and ST for Skew Normal and Skew t
Summary
The French Mediterranean area is subject to intense rainfall events occurring mainly in the fall. Blanchet and Davison (2011) and Thibaud et al (2013) (see references therein) performed model selection of spatial processes for extremes of snow and rainfall, respectively, in Switzerland These studies show that the choice of the spatial dependence structure for extremes must be made with great care and that the metaGaussian distribution can fit very poorly. This work is intended as a preliminary study before developing a spatial stochastic rainfall generator adapted for flood-risk rainfall in the Mediterranean area. Each model consists of marginal distributions, which describe the univariate behavior of daily flood-risk rainfall at each site, combined with a spatial dependence structure, which captures the site-to-site variability at a given day.
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