Multivariate Analysis of Infant and Child Mortality in Java and Bali

Abstract

The data used in this analysis come from the 1976 Indonesian Fertility Survey part of the World Fertility Survey. The data are examined 3 times fitting them to models which include different combinations of independent variables. The dependent variables are: 1) the proportion of children born between 5 and 15 years before the survey who died before their 1st birthday for infant mortality; and 2) among those alive on their 1st birthday the proportions who died before reaching their 5th birthday for child mortality. The figures indicate that the chance of dying for children who were 1st born born shortly after a previous child whose previous sibling had died who lived in rural areas or had parents who were young and with little education was greater than for children without these characteristics. In all 3 models used the greatest net effects are attributed to the survival of a preceding sibling or the length of the preceding interval. Birth order does not have a significant gross effect on infant mortality but the net effects are significant because of the control on maternal age. Education of both parents has significant effects but these are overshadowed in magnitude by the demographic variables. Maternal education has a greater influence in determining differences in child mortality than was found for infant mortality. Fathers education also has a significant independent effect but mainly for 1st births. It is uncertain whether these variables are measuring the effect of schooling as such or other characteristics such as economic status or various social roles adopted by people with different levels of education. The variables distinguishing urban from rural status shows significant gross effects which are greatly reduced when controls for other variables are introduced in the model which includes all births. That is to say the difference in the survival chances of a child in the city is more a function of the education of its parents and the associated demographic variables than city residence as such. Access to medical services is quite probably the main element in these differences. The findings are weakened to some extent by the lack of satisfactory data on household economic status which might have provided a better base for indirectly discerning the effects of nutrition and sanitation on mortality at young ages.