Abstract
In densely populated urban areas, predicting the post-earthquake performance of a transport network is a particularly challenging task that requires the integration of modeled structural seismic response, damage scenarios, and resulting traffic behavior. Previous approaches assessing the vulnerability and performance of networks after earthquakes have not succeeded in capturing and estimating the interdependencies between seismic risk parameters and key traffic behavior variables. This paper presents a methodology, based on data analysis and optimization, where the dynamic traffic modeling and probabilistic seismic hazard assessment are coupled, to link and characterize key network performance variables after extreme earthquakes and establish a multivariable seismic performance measure. The methodology is used to study the transport network in the southern part of Mexico City for a set of scenarios. The seismic environment is established through uniform hazard spectra derived for firm soil. Damage to structures is estimated considering site response and using fragility functions. Dynamic traffic modeling is developed to simulate damage-induced road closures and resulting in traffic variations. Post-earthquake network performance is evaluated through data envelopment analyses, obtaining sets of seismic performance boundaries, and seismic performance maps. The methodology offers a quantitative tool with applications in the planning of urban areas that are sustainable and seismic resilient.
Highlights
In highly populated urban regions, transport networks are considered critical infrastructure that should offer operational continuity both in normal and extreme conditions
This paper presents a novel multivariable methodology to analyze the vulnerability and performance of urban transport networks in densely populated areas following strong earthquake scenarios, as a relation of seismic intensity and traffic behavior variables
The methodology aims to predict the response of the transport network and to develop a new performance-vulnerability measure that predicts the expected behavior under given seismic conditions, it can be resumed in six steps: 1. Definition of input and output variables to define the TSP index for the network 2
Summary
In highly populated urban regions, transport networks are considered critical infrastructure that should offer operational continuity both in normal and extreme conditions. For instance, the post-event performance of transport networks is related to expected damage scenarios Determining these is complex as network components interdependences, the spatial variations of ground motions in a given region, and the specific response of structures must be considered. No works have considered modeling post-earthquake network performance and traffic behavior as a function of key seismological parameters such as ground accelerations and ground displacements Under this perspective, the performance and vulnerability of the networks are understood as the response of traffic flow behavior to a given seismic intensity input. This paper presents a novel multivariable methodology to analyze the vulnerability and performance of urban transport networks in densely populated areas following strong earthquake scenarios, as a relation of seismic intensity and traffic behavior variables. Applications of the methodology could be in the planning, design, and monitoring of strategies to improve the sustainability and resilience of urban transport networks after an extreme earthquake
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