Abstract
This paper analyzes the drivers behind the changes of the Aggregate Carbon Intensity (ACI) of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) power sector in five periods between 1990 and 2017. Since 1990 the carbon intensity of the world has been reduced almost 8.8% whereas the carbon intensity of LAC countries only decreased 0.8%. Even though by 2017 the regional carbon intensity is very similar to the one observed by 1990, this index has showed high variability, mainly in the last three years when the ACI of LAC fell from 285 gCO2/kWh in 2015 to 257.7 gCO2/kWh. To understand what happened with the evolution of the carbon intensity in the region, in this paper a Logarithmic Mean Divisia for Index Decomposition Analysis (IDA-LMDI) is carried out to identify the accelerating and attenuating drivers of the ACI behavior along five periods. The proposal outperforms existing studies previously applied to LAC based upon a single period of analysis. Key contributions are introduced by considering the type of fuel used in power plants as well as specific time-series of energy flows and CO2 emissions by country. Results reveal structural reasons for the increase of the ACI in 1995–2003 and 2008–2015, and intensity reasons for the decrease of the ACI in 1990–1995, 2003–2008 and 2015–2017.
Highlights
Scientific research has found evidences that in the last two centuries, greenhouse gas (GHG)concentrations in the atmosphere are rising sharply
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is warning about the need to reduce anthropogenic GHG emissions to avoid a rise in global temperatures during this century [2]
Notice that since 1990, the aggregate carbon intensity of the World has dropped about 8.8%
Summary
Scientific research has found evidences that in the last two centuries, greenhouse gas (GHG). Concentrations in the atmosphere are rising sharply. 405.5 ppm in 2017, 146% of the pre-industrial era [1]. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is warning about the need to reduce anthropogenic GHG emissions to avoid a rise in global temperatures during this century [2]. The main source behind the increase in carbon dioxide concentrations is the increasing use of fossil fuels in power plants. In 2017, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) countries CO2 emissions reached 1596 MtCO2 (one million tons of CO2 ) representing 4.8% of world energy-related emissions
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