Multitask Bayesian Spatiotemporal Gaussian Processes for Short-Term Load Forecasting

Abstract

Short-term household electricity load forecasting is important for utility companies to ensure reliable power supplies. Traditional methods for load forecasting relied on historical records from one single data source and have limitations with insufficient or missing data. Recently, an emerging family of machine learning algorithms, multitask learning (MTL), has been developed and has the potential for load forecasting. By MTL, the electricity consumption data from multiple communities can be fused to improve forecasting accuracy. However, appropriate modeling of the relatedness to enable the between-community knowledge transfer remains a challenge. This paper proposes an improved MTL algorithm for a Bayesian spatiotemporal Gaussian process model (BSGP) to characterize the relatedness among the different residential communities. It hypothesizes on the similar impacts of environmental and traffic conditions on electricity consumption in improving short-term load forecasting. Furthermore, this paper proposes a low-ranked dirty model along with an iterative algorithm to improve the learning of model parameters under an MTL framework. This paper uses a real-world case study from two residential communities in Tallahassee, Fl, USA, to demonstrate the method effectiveness. The proposed method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art forecasting methods and effectively captures the relatedness to provide between-community knowledge transfer compared with other MTL methods.