Multistage Decision Framework for the Selection of Renewable Energy Sources Based on Prospect Theory and PROMETHEE

Abstract

The selection of appropriate renewable energy sources (RESs) for a region is a complex multi-criteria decision-making problem because the RES selection process involves many factors, such as economic, environmental, technological and societal. Hence, to address this problem, this paper proposes a multistage framework for selecting a suitable RES alternative by integrating picture linguistic fuzzy numbers (PLFNs), preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluations II (PROMETHEE II) and prospect theory (PT). First, PLFNs are used to describe the evaluation information. Second, using the proposed picture linguistic fuzzy weighed Heronian distance measurement, this paper proposes an extended maximizing deviation method that can capture the interrelationships among criteria. Third, an extended PROMETHEE II, which considers the bounded rationality of decision-makers, combined with PT is developed. Finally, the proposed framework solves a RES selection problem in northwest of China. The result shows solar energy is the best choice, followed by wind, hydro and biomass energy. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to explore the effects of the parameters on the results. The advantages of the proposed method are verified through a comparative analysis.