Multisensor Monitoring System for Assessment of Locust Hazard Risk in the Lake Balkhash Drainage Basin

Pavel Propastin

doi:10.1007/s00267-012-9950-2

Abstract

Satellite and ground-based data were combined in a monitoring system to quantify the link between climate conditions and the risk of locust infestations in the southern part of Lake Balkhash’s drainage basin in the Republic of Kazakhstan. In this monitoring system, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), derived from the SPOT-VGT satellite, was used for mapping potential locust habitats and monitoring their area throughout 1998 to 2007. TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason 1 altimeter data were used to track the interannual dynamics of water level in Balkhash Lake. Climate conditions were represented by weather records for air temperature and precipitation during the same period. The classification procedure, based on an analysis of multitemporal dynamics of SPOT-VGT NDVI values observed by individual vegetation classes, generated annual areas of ten land-cover types, which were then categorized as areas with low, medium, and high risk for locust infestation. Statistical analyses showed significant influences of the climatic parameters and the Balkhash Lake hydrological regime on the spatial extend of annual areas of potential locust habitats. The results also indicate that the linkages between locust infestation risk and environmental factors are characterized by time lags. The expansion of locust risk areas are usually preceded by dry, hot years and lower water levels in Balkhash Lake when larger areas of reed grass are free from seasonal flooding. Years with such conditions are favourable for locust outbreaks due to expansion of the habitat areas suitable for locust oviposition and nymphal development. In contrast, years with higher water levels in Balkhash Lake and lower temperature decrease the potential locust habitat area.

Highlights

One of the most persistent and damaging natural hazards of Central Asia is locusts
We examined the association between the hydrological regimen of the Balkhash Lake and locust risk
The results of this study show that periodic fluctuations of the water level in the lake influence the total area of the potential locust habitat and, as a consequence, locust population dynamics: When the water level decreases, the area for locust breeding increases, and vice versa (Fig. 8)

Summary

Introduction

One of the most persistent and damaging natural hazards of Central Asia is locusts. With a periodicity of 2 to 10 years, swarms of locusts endanger agricultural production in the region by devastating crops and pastures (Tsyplenkov 1970; Kambulin 1992). One of the most damaging locust outbreaks occurred in July 1999, when swarms of locusts invaded the capital of Kazakhstan Astana, terrifying citizens and causing traffic accidents (Toleubayev and others 2007). The agent of the locust hazard in this large region is the Asian migratory locust (Locusta migratoria migratoria), which is highly mobile and capable of devastating crops covering large areas. In the formerly Soviet Central Asia, the largest permanent breeding areas of the Asian migratory locust are located in Uzbekistan (Latchininsky and others 2007) and in Kazakhstan (Kambulin 1992) (Fig. 1)

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Discussion

Conclusion