Multi-scale spatial features and temporal attention mechanisms: advancing the accuracy of ENSO prediction

Abstract

The exponential progression in oceanic observational technology has fostered the accumulation of substantial time series data pivotal for predictions in ocean meteorology. Foremost among the phenomena observed is El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a critical determinant in the interplay of global ocean atmosphere interactions, with its severe manifestations inducing extreme meteorological conditions. Therefore, precisely predicting ENSO events carries immense gravitas. Historically, predictions hinged primarily on dynamic models and statistical approaches; however, the intricate and multifaceted spatiotemporal dynamics of ENSO events have often impeded the accuracy of these traditional methodologies. A notable lacuna in contemporary research is the insufficient exploration of long-term dependencies within oceanic data and the suboptimal integration of spatial information derived from spatiotemporal data. To address these limitations, this study introduces a forward-thinking ENSO prediction framework synergizing multiscale spatial features with temporal attention mechanisms. This innovation facilitates a more profound exploration of temporal and spatial domains, enhancing the retention of extensive-period data while optimizing the use of spatial information. Preliminary analyses executed on the global ocean data assimilation system dataset attest to the superior efficacy of the proposed method, underscoring a substantial improvement over established methods including SA-convolutional long short-term memory, particularly in facilitating long-term predictions.The source code and datasets are provided. The code is available at https://github.com/tse1998/ENSO-prediction.