Multi-scale Scenarios for Local Climate Change Policies 

Abstract

<p>At the local and sub-regional levels, human-water systems are bound by regional constraints that are influenced by connected internal politics associated with particular socioeconomic conditions. This implies that any multi-scale scenario framework must account for the many scales at which socioeconomic change will manifest. In this study, we developed a series of localized shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) by downscaling global SSPs as boundary conditions integrated with climate change pathways (RCPs) to construct a narrative scenario development process that incorporates both a multi-scale (top-down) and a bottom-up (co-production) approach. To obtain insight into human-water systems in developing countries, the study focused on the extensive irrigated portions of Pakistan's central-northeastern Rechna Doab watershed, which served as a case study for a typical multi-stakeholder system. Our developed localized narrative SSPs served as the basis for evaluating the probable consequences of socioeconomic and climatic change at the local level across a variety of socioeconomic possibilities. These estimates provide information on the likely future consequences of socioeconomic and climatic change and the performance of various adaptation measures. Additionally, the localized narratives are designed as a starting point for downscaling projections of critical processes and variables such as population increase and economic development. By analyzing the localized SSPs narratives using a regional integrated assessment model, significant future changes in these critical socioeconomic and environmental variables are predicted, assisting decision-makers in exploring and developing appropriate policy interventions and adaptation strategies. These estimates are used to model and quantify the local consequences of the human-water system on social and environmental issues (e.g., farm income, crop yields, water demands, and groundwater resource depletion). Our findings show that even with modest socioeconomic advances (e.g., technology, policies, institutions, and environmental consciousness), water security is likely to decline, and environmental degradation (e.g., groundwater depletion) will exacerbate. The suggested framework makes it easier to establish future adaptation plans that take regional and local planning and socioeconomic factors into account.</p>