Multiscale Pedestrian Dynamics and Infection Spread Model for Policy Analysis

Pierrot Derjany,Sirish Namilae,Anuj Mubayi,Dahai Liu,Ashok Srinivasan

doi:10.17815/cd.2020.86

Pierrot Derjany, Sirish Namilae + Show 3 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.17815/cd.2020.86

Copy DOI

Abstract

In this paper, we present a formulation for a multiscale model combining a social force based pedestrian movement including collision avoidance and a stochastic infection dynamics framework to evaluate the spread of multiple infectious diseases during air travel. We apply the multiscale model to evaluate pedestrian movement strategies that can reduce infection spread during air travel. The results are presented for airport lounge and airplane boarding and deplaning. Use of parallel computing to evaluate the vast parameter space created due to stochasticity and discretionary pedestrian behavior is addressed.

Highlights

Public transportation in general and air travel in particular have been identified as leading factors in the spread of infectious diseases; there is direct evidence for air travel related spread of infections such as influenza [1], SARS [2], measles [3] and norovirus [4]
Model Formulation In order to first determine the number of pedestrian-pedestrian and pedestrian-surface contacts, we model the dynamics of mobile pedestrians incorporating interactions with other pedestrians and stationary objects, like walls and chairs, as particles
Aggregated information of pedestrian contacts from these simulations is used for modeling infectious disease spread based on Eq 2 above

Summary

Introduction

Public transportation in general and air travel in particular have been identified as leading factors in the spread of infectious diseases; there is direct evidence for air travel related spread of infections such as influenza [1], SARS [2], measles [3] and norovirus [4]. Pedestrian movement within an airport and in airplanes is key to understanding and estimating the casual contacts between passengers and thereby understanding the infectious disease spread. We have formulated a multiphysics computational model [5, 6] that incorporates particle dynamics based pedestrian movement of travelers in transit hubs (e.g. airports), contact analysis and stochastic infectious disease spread, to frame and analyze transportation policies that can mitigate infectious disease spread. We utilize this multiscale model for policy design to develop strategies that mitigate spread.

Results

Conclusion