Multiscale Network Traffic Prediction Method Based on Deep Echo-State Network for Internet of Things

Abstract

As a typical Internet of Things application, network traffic prediction (NTP) plays a decisive role in congestion control, resource allocation, and anomaly detection. The trend of network traffic is different at different scales, so multiscale is an important characteristic of network traffic. In addition, the network traffic is nonlinear on each scale and dependent between scales. The existing NTP methods cannot comprehensively consider these characteristics, which limits their performance. In view of the characteristics of network traffic, such as multiscale, nonlinearity, and scale dependence, this article proposes a new multiscale NTP method based on a deep echo-state network (ESN). First, a multiscale parallel layered structure based on deep ESN is designed to fully consider the influence of each scale on the prediction result and then reduce the prediction error. Second, a feature extraction algorithm is proposed to improve the nonlinear approximation ability by extracting more abundant dynamic features with multiple reservoirs. Third, an NTP model based on scale dependence is proposed to reduce the influence from partial scale missing and then improve the prediction accuracy. Finally, simulation results demonstrate that compared with the state-of-the-art NTP methods, the proposed method significantly improves the prediction performance of network traffic with a slight increase in running time.